I said in 2009 it would hinge on abortion. I so seldom get a chance to say "I told you so," so I'll take this opportunity while I have it. It looks like it still comes down to Michigan Representative Stupak and his band of pro-lifers.
House GOP whip Rep. Eric Cantor reports in his latest memo that Republicans need to find six other Democrats to vote no in order to defeat the bill. Cantor points to one original yes vote that has switched to no -- Arcuri -- and suggests there might be five others who could switch: Berry, Costa, Giffords, Lynch, and Space.
That leaves the much-discussed Stupak Group. The pro-life Democrat originally said he had 12 colleagues who originally voted yes but would now vote no. Stupak has lost some of those, but it is not clear how many.
Cantor suggests that in combining those two categories -- the yeses who have become no plus the Stupak group -- there might be another 12 votes against the bill. "If we add 12 to 32, we get 44 -- which leaves Speaker Pelosi seven votes short," Cantor concludes.
The Washington Examiner's Byron York writes:
Who is correct? It's clear the Democrats are working around the clock to create a sense of momentum and inevitability about the vote. But the fact is, there are still enough unknowns to say the outcome is entirely in doubt.
But, his colleague and online opinion editor for the same publication David Freddoso writes that Rep. Brad Ellsworth, D-Ind. is taking alot of heat at home for announcing he would vote "Yes". Even adding that a vote for Health Reform makes his announced run for Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh's seat "futile."
If Ellsworth is being pushed into voting for this, you can bet that Speaker Pelosi has no votes to spare. But by the same token, you wouldn't be hearing him commit in public if she didn't have the votes.
Votes are scheduled for Sunday afternoon. It will go down to the wire.
